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UK Labour Market: A Long, Bleak Run Starts Here

According to the Office for National Statistics, the unemployment rate in the UK climbed to 4.4% between September and November, surpassing predictions and marking an increase compared to the previous quarter.


Key Findings:


  • The employment rate came in at 74.8%, down slightly on the previous quarter

  • Unemployment came in at 4.4%, versus 4.3% in the three months to October and market expectations of 4.3% (Trading Economics)

  • Economic Inactivity fell quarter-on-quarter to 21.6%

  • Annual wage growth came in at 5.6%, versus 5.2% in the three months to October and market expectations of 5.5% (Trading Economics)


Nicholas Hyett, Investment Manager at Wealth Club, commented; “Despite some movement round the edges, the November work stats show an economy that is broadly standing still. Unemployment has ticked up a touch and is slightly higher than expected, but that is largely down to people re-entering the workforce from economic inactivity - which is probably a net positive given the UK's struggle with large numbers of economically inactive workers."


"However, the trend is not your friend here if you're the Chancellor. Early estimates suggest the number of people in employment shrank by 47,000 between November and December. With the increase in National Insurance contributions, announced in the budget, making workers more expensive from April it's a trend we wouldn't be surprised to see continue for the next few months. That's not to say that the UK faces a massive layoff - but if businesses decide not to replace leavers and don't hire to expand, the unemployment number will grow all the same."


"The UK Labour Market figures could make depressing reading from the next five or six months."


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According to the Office for National Statistics, the unemployment rate in the UK climbed to 4.4% between September and November, surpassing predictions and marking an increase compared to the previous quarter.


Key Findings:


  • The employment rate came in at 74.8%, down slightly on the previous quarter

  • Unemployment came in at 4.4%, versus 4.3% in the three months to October and market expectations of 4.3% (Trading Economics)

  • Economic Inactivity fell quarter-on-quarter to 21.6%

  • Annual wage growth came in at 5.6%, versus 5.2% in the three months to October and market expectations of 5.5% (Trading Economics)


Nicholas Hyett, Investment Manager at Wealth Club, commented; “Despite some movement round the edges, the November work stats show an economy that is broadly standing still. Unemployment has ticked up a touch and is slightly higher than expected, but that is largely down to people re-entering the workforce from economic inactivity - which is probably a net positive given the UK's struggle with large numbers of economically inactive workers."


"However, the trend is not your friend here if you're the Chancellor. Early estimates suggest the number of people in employment shrank by 47,000 between November and December. With the increase in National Insurance contributions, announced in the budget, making workers more expensive from April it's a trend we wouldn't be surprised to see continue for the next few months. That's not to say that the UK faces a massive layoff - but if businesses decide not to replace leavers and don't hire to expand, the unemployment number will grow all the same."


"The UK Labour Market figures could make depressing reading from the next five or six months."


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